The domestic pharma market will outshine the global market, growing at a compounded annual rate of 12-15% as against a global average of 4-7% during 2008-2013.
In fact the seven emerging markets of China, Brazil, India, South Korea, Mexico, Turkey and Russia are expected to collectively see drug sales grow by 12-14% in 2010, says market research firm IMS. India alone will grow 12-14% next year. The global pharmaceutical market will grow 4-6% next year, exceeding $825 billion on strong prescription sales in the US — higher than initially perceived.
Though the growth is historically low compared with high single-to low double-digit growth seen in the past, but “we’re seeing a slightly more positive outlook for the pharmaceutical sector mainly driven by stronger growth in the US market, which has proved to be more resilient than expected to the economic downturn,” Murray Aitken, senior vice president for Healthcare Insight at IMS said.
China alone is expected to continue to exceed 20% annual growth. The recession has had a more pronounced impact on drug sales in countries with higher patient out-of-pocket spending, such as Russia, Mexico and South Korea, IMS found, while sales in countries where prescription drugs are largely government funded, such as Germany, Japan, Spain and Turkey, have been less affected.
IMS said its latest forecast does not fully factor in the potential impact of a severe H1N1 swine flu pandemic, which could positively affect growth through increased sales of vaccines and antiviral medicines.